A measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process |
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| Authors: | Truong Ton Hien Duc Huynh Trung Luong Yeong-Dae Kim |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Industrial Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701, Republic of Korea;2. Industrial Systems Engineering Program, School of Advanced Technologies, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we quantify the impact of the bullwhip effect – the phenomenon in which information on demand is distorted as moving up a supply chain – for a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. Assuming that the retailer employs a base stock inventory policy, and that the demand forecast is performed via a mixed autoregressive-moving average model, ARMA(1, 1), we investigate the effects of the autoregressive coefficient, the moving average parameter, and the lead time on the bullwhip effect. |
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| Keywords: | Supply chain Bullwhip effect Mixed autoregressive-moving average model Base stock policy |
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