A mathematical modeling for incorporating energy price hikes into total natural gas consumption forecasting |
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Authors: | V Majazi Dalfard M Nazari Asli SM Asadzadeh SM Sajjadi A Nazari-Shirkouhi |
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Institution: | 1. Young Researchers Club, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran;2. Department of Management, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran;3. Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran;4. Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;5. Faculty of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran |
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Abstract: | In some countries that energy prices are low, price elasticity of demand may not be significant. In this case, large increase or hike in energy prices may impact energy consumption in a way which cannot be drawn from historical data. This paper proposes an integrated adaptive fuzzy inference system (FIS) to forecast long-term natural gas (NG) consumption when prices experience large increase. To incorporate the impact of price hike into modeling, a novel procedure for construction and adaptation of Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy inference system (TS-FIS) is suggested. Linear regressions are used to construct a first order TS-FIS. Furthermore, adaptive network-based FIS (ANFIS) is used to forecast NG consumption in power plants. To cope with random uncertainty in small historical data sets, Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to generate training data for ANFIS. To show the applicability and usefulness of the proposed model, it is applied for forecasting of annual NG consumption in Iran where removing energy subsidies has resulted in a hike in NG prices. |
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Keywords: | Natural gas forecasting Energy price Linear regressions Adaptive neuro-fuzzy system |
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