Duane-LR模型下复杂系统的动态可靠性增长评定

基于复杂系统可靠性增长试验的特点，运用Duane可靠性增长模型结合数理统计中的线性回归方法对新批次产品的可靠性参数进行预测。结合产品的少量现场试验数据，利用Bayes方法对系统的可靠性增长试验结果进行评定。文中首先给出了可靠性增长分析的模型，然后运用历次阶段试验中的可靠性增长数据建立动态参数的递推估计模型，在此基础上，运用随机变量函数的分布，给出各阶段可靠性增长试验中可靠性参数的Bayes估计。文中对Weibull、指数和二项分布三种试验结果进行分析，给出计算公式。

The Dynamic Reliability Growth Evaluation for Complex System Based on Duane-LR Model

This paper, based on the characteristics of complex system reliability growth test, use the (Duane) model and linear regression(LR) method to forecast the reliability parameters of new products. Then use Bayesian method and combined with a little field test data to evaluate the reliability (parameters) of products. In the article, first, the reliability growth analysis model was present. Then with the reliability growth test data, a dynamic parameter iterative evaluation model was build. With the iterative model and field test data, the reliability evaluation of every stage can be calculated out by Bayesian formula. Based on the distribution of function of the random variable, the reliability (evaluation) was given. The reliability test data based on weibull, exponential and binomial distribution model was analysis, and reliability evaluation formula was presented.