电力市场中合同电量与竞争电量交易比例的研究

在单边开放的区域电力市场中,合理的合同电量与竞争电量交易比例是保证电力市场有效运行的一个重要环节。竞争电量所占的比例将主要取决于当前发电公司的市场行为。首先使用BP神经网络对电力需求弹性系数进行了预测,然后以长期电力市场均衡为目标函数,考虑贵州电网发电机组的可用容量与负荷预测的误差,以及贵州输电线路的可靠性诸因素,推导出合同电量与竞争电量交易比例,经过与南方区域电力市场目前运营规则规定的交易比例比较,该比例是合理的,可以规避电力市场价格波动等带来的风险。

Research on Trade Proportion of Contract and Competition Electricity in Electricity Market

In the unilateral-open local electricity market,a rational proportion of contract and competition electricity is an important link to insure electricity market function well.The proportion of competition electricity is decided by trade actions of electricity power companies.First of all,we anticipate the elasticity factor of electricity requirement by using BP neural network.Considering the reliability network and its anticipation,we then manage to get the rational proportion of contract and competition electricity by setting electricity market balance as our target function.Compared with the proportion now assigned in the regulations of the South electricity market,the trade proportion is reasonable enough to avoid risks brought by price fluctuation.