基于云模型和证据理论的科技创新与持续发展能力评价

为科学合理地对企业科技创新与持续发展能力进行评估,文章从科技创新基础与现状情况、科技创新组织管理能力和科技创新持续发展能力三个方面入手建立企业科技创新与持续发展评估的指标体系,并针对指标的不确定性构建一种基于云模型和证据理论的科技创新与持续发展能力评价模型。首先应用云模型对评价指标转化为区间数并应用区间熵权法确定指标权重,其次运用证据理论对指标的置信度等进行计算得出评价对象的评估结果。最后以国网某省公司为例,分别应用基于云模型和证据理论的评估模型和区间证据推理方法进行评估研究,验证评价模型的可行性、准确性、科学性和合理性。研究结论为在企业科技创新与持续发展中应加强科技创新持续发展能力等方面的建设。

Evaluation of Technological Innovation and Sustainable Development Capability Based on Cloud Model and Evidence Theory

In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate technological innovation and sustainable development capabilities of enterprises, the article starts with establishment of an index system for evaluation of enterprise technological innovation and sustainable development from three aspects: the foundation and current situation of technological innovation, technological innovation organization and management capabilities, and technological innovation sustainable development capabilities, and then build an evaluation model of technological innovation and sustainable development capability based on cloud model and evidence theory with regard to the uncertainty of indicators. First, the cloud model is used to transform the evaluation index into interval numbers and the interval entropy weight method is used to determine the index weight. Second, the evidence theory is used to calculate the confidence of the index to obtain the evaluation result of the evaluation object. Finally, taking a provincial company of State Grid as an example, the evaluation model based on cloud model and evidence theory and the interval evidence reasoning method are used to conduct evaluation research to verify the feasibility, accuracy, scientificity and rationality of the evaluation model. It is concluded that the construction of sustainable development capabilities of technological innovation should be strengthened in the technological innovation and sustainable development of enterprises.