A-P-S组合策略的多重绩效及其“褪色”效应分析

为了降低城市交通拥堵及空气污染程度,本文在现有研究的基础上引入罚款政策,利用系统动力学方法原理构建了机动车污染物减排管控模型。通过仿真和比较分析来探索空气污染收费(Air pollution charging fee,简称APCF)、罚款(penalty)和补贴(subsidy)政策(简称A-P-S策略)的作用效果。研究结果表明:一方面,组合策略具有多重绩效,不但能够降低污染损失(经济-环境效益)、死亡人口的生命价值(社会-经济效益)、交通拥堵程度(社会效益)和机动车污染物总量(环境效益),而且能大大改善环境生态承载力(环境效益)和机动车非法出行增长量(社会安全绩效);另一方面,政策在实施过程中也会遇到一定的局限性,如初期的滞后性,后期的“褪色”效应和“反弹”效应,因此,从长期来看,需要及时调整组合方案。最后,根据仿真结果提出了相应的政策建议,进而为城市交通和环保等相关部门提供决策参考。

Multiple Performances of A-P-S Combination Strategy and Its Bleaching Effect

In order to reduce the degree of urban traffic congestion and air pollution, this paper introduces a penalty policy on the basis of existing research, and constructs a vehicle pollutant emission reduction control model using the principle of system dynamics. Through simulation and comparative analysis, the effects of air pollution charging fee (APCF), penalty and subsidy policies (A-P-S strategy) are explored. The results show that, on the one hand, the combination strategy has multiple performance, which can not only reduce pollution loss (economic-environmental benefits), the life value (social-economic benefits), traffic congestion (social benefits), and the total amount of motor vehicle pollutants (environmental benefits), but also greatly improve the environmental ecological carrying capacity (environmental performance). On the other hand, the policy will also encounter some limitations in the implementation process, such as the initial lag, the later bleaching and rebound effects. Therefore, in the long run, it is necessary to adjust the combination plan in time. Finally, according to the simulation results, the following policy recommendations are put forward: in view of the limitation of single policy, the combination of three policies should be fully considered in order to play its multiple performances. In view of the lag effect in the early stage, publicity should be strengthened to make citizens realize the responsibility and significance of air pollution and traffic congestion control, so as to improve the support of the policy. In view of the bleaching effect of portfolio policy, the combination scheme should be adjusted in time according to the actual situation to achieve the purpose of optimization. These policy recommendations can provide decision-making reference for the relevant departments such as urban transportation and environmental protection.