中国能源资本替代的不确定性

在研究能源经济问题的可计算一般均衡模型中，都考虑能源、资本和劳动的相互替代。通过对中国1978～2000年历史数据回归分析1]发现在常替代弹性(CES)生产函数和Cobb—Douglas(C-D)生产函数中，劳动投入对生产函数几乎没有影响。剔除劳动投入后使用能源和资本作为投入1]重新估计了中国的生产函数，在新的生产函数中发现能源和资本间的替代具有很高的不确定性。本在1]的基础上，设定了五个情景，包括常规发展情景(BAU)，节能情景(EC)及减少温室气体排放5％(ER5)、10％(ER10)和15％(ER15)三个情景探索节能和控制温室气体排放对中国经济的影响。研究发现，尽管存在很大的不确定性，中国需要增加大量的资本去替代能源，所以在确保可持续发展所需的能源和控制温室气体排放上中国经济面临着巨大的挑战。

Uncertainty of Capital-energy Substitution in China

Energy-capital-labor substitution is considered in production function in most computable general (equilibrium)(CGE) models that study energy-economic issues. We econometrically estimate the substitution (elasticity) for function structure of constant elasticity of substitution(CES) and Cobb-Douglas(C-D) and find that the labor input has little or no impact on China's production functions. And consequently, labor input can be reasonably disregarded in establishing China's production functions. Using energy and capital as inputs, new China's production functions, including C-D and CES production functions, are built. But high uncertainty of substitution elasticity for capital and energy is found, from 1 to infinity, in new China's production functions in terms of function structure. We explore the economic impact of the uncertainty on two policy scenarios to business as usual (BAU) scenario, including energy conservation and green gases emission control and find that the huge investment to substitute energy is needed although there is high uncertainty for energy-capital substitution. So, whether to ensure energy supply security or to participate in international green gases emission abatement activities are enormous challenge to China.