基于云模型和证据推理的生态环境安全评价

文章提出了一种生态环境安全综合评价模型。首先构建生态环境安全评价指标体系并划分等级区间, 通过云模型将各指标实际值转化为生态环境安全等级的关联度; 其次结合证据推理与熵权法动静态组合确定指标权重; 然后利用证据推理计算出各指标基本可信度分配函数, 再采用证据融合算法合成出生态环境安全综合评估概率分布; 最后根据“最大关联度准则”得出评价结果。以湖南省为例开展实例研究, 研究结果与模糊综合评价法评估等级结果一致, 验证了所提出方法具有合理性、可行性和有效性。

Ecological Environmental Security Evaluation Based onCloud Model and Evidential Reasoning

This paper proposes a comprehensive ecological environmental security evaluation model based on cloud model and evidence reasoning.Firstly,the ecological environmental security evaluation index system is constructed and divided into grade intervals.The actual value of each index is transformed into the relevance degree of ecological environmental security level through cloud model.Secondly,the index weight is determined dynamically and statically by using the combination of evidence reasoning and entropy method.After that,we use evidence reasoning to calculate the basic probability assignment function of each index,and then the evidence fusion algorithm to synthesize the ecological security comprehensive evaluation probability distribution.Finally,the evaluation result is obtained according to the'maximum correlation criterion'.This paper takes Hunan province as an example.The evaluation results of the model in this paper are consistent with the evaluation grade results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,but the uncertainty of the evaluation results is lower than that of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,which verifies the rationality,feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.