基于权威专家的不完全概率语言评价信息大群体决策方法及在干热岩勘探选址中的应用

干热岩勘探选址大群体决策中,决策专家受知识背景、专业领域的限制,难以给出完整的评价信息,而集思广益是大群体决策的主要优势,为最大化各专家专业贡献,提出了一种基于权威专家的不完全概率语言评价信息多属性大群决策方法。首先,依据专家在各属性下评价值的专业认可度及专业犹豫度,识别各属性下的权威专家;其次,依据专家语言术语使用习惯及权威专家评价值期望函数,建立优化函数,完善不完全概率语言信息;然后,针对概率语言术语集,提出对各属性下评价值进行两阶段相似度测度方法,据此将大群体聚类,测度大群体共识水平,调节群体共识,以得到共识水平较高的大群体决策方案;最后,通过我国东南沿海地区干热岩勘探选址案例应用及方法对比分析,验证了所提方法的可靠性和先进性。

Large Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Probabilistic Linguistic Evaluation Information Considering Authoritative Expert and Its Application in Site Selection of Hot Dry Rock Exploration

Due to the limitations of expert's knowledge background and professional field, it is difficult to get complete evaluation information in large group decision making (LGDM). In order to maximize the professional contributions of every expert, this paper proposes a LGDM of incomplete evaluation information in the form of probabilistic linguistic term set (PLTs). Firstly, we identify the authoritative experts under different attributes according to the degree of professional recognition and professional hesitation of the expert. Secondly, optimization functions are established to complete the evaluation information. Then, this paper proposes a two-stage similarity measurement method. At the same time, group consensus level can be measured and adjusted to obtain a result with high consensus level. Finally, the reliability and advancement of the proposed method are verified through the case application and comparative analysis of hot dry rock exploration site selection in the southeast coastal area of China.