基于ISM与M-F模型的公务员工资普调频率研究

以普调频率为核心的工资增长机制,是我国公务员工资制度改革悬而未决的难点问题,其关键在于分析影响因素并确定普调周期。文章采用ISM、M-F等方法,对我国公务员工资普调频率影响因素进行量化分析,旨在通过研究各因素影响时效的衍变规律,寻求长期稳态下最适宜的普调周期。研究发现,基于时效周期的工资普调影响指标体系包含24项因素,其中CPI等8项流量因素构成短期时效层,自身变化及影响时效短,易波动,综合影响期为1.55年;平均任职时间等13项存量因素构成中期时效层,指标变动具有长期累积性,综合影响期为3.11年;工资差异结构等3项支配因素构成长期时效层,反映工资供求矛盾状态,综合影响期为4.53年;在24项因素综合作用下,系统于2.34年达到了长期稳态水平,各项影响因素实现了最佳平衡,可近似将2.50年设计为普调周期。

Research on the Adjustment Frequency of Civil Servants’ Compensation Based on ISM and M-F Model

The growth mechanism of wage with the frequency of general survey as the core is a pending difficult problem in the reform of civil servant wage system in China. The key to solving the problem is the influencing factors and mechanism of the frequency of general survey. By using ISM, M-F and other methods, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the influencing factors of the frequency of the general survey of civil servants’ wages in China, aiming to find the most suitable period of the general survey in the long-term steady state by studying the evolution law of the effect of various factors on the time effect. It is found that the influence index system of general wage adjustment based on the theory of time cycle includes 24 factors, among which 8 flow factors such as CPI constitute the short-term time effect layer, their own change cycle and influence time effect are short, easy to fluctuate, and the comprehensive influence time effect period is 1.55 years; 13 stock factors such as the average working time constitute the medium-term time effect layer, and the change of index has long-term accumulation and comprehensive influence time effect, which is 3.11 years; three dominant factors, such as wage difference structure, constitute a long-term time effect layer, reflecting the contradiction between wage supply and demand, with a comprehensive influence time limit of 4.53 years; under the comprehensive effect of 24 factors, the system reaches a long-term stable level in 2.34 years, which achieves the best balance for all influencing factors, and could be designed as a general adjustment period approximately in 2.50 years.