基于区间二型梯形模糊集的应急物资储备动态协同决策模型

重大灾害下应急物资储备决策是阻止突发灾难蔓延的有效手段之一。针对救灾信息具备不确定性与复杂性特点,构建基于区间二型梯形模糊集的应急物资储备动态协同决策模型,并给出应急物资储备策略。利用区间二型模糊集理论的决策方案并结合比例分析法(COPRAS),构建常态环境下应急物资供应商选择的群决策模型,解决不相容群决策属性之间的冲突问题;进而,充分考虑“救灾阶段性动态时间因素”对储备决策的影响,构建动态救灾环境下应急物资储备结构模糊优化模型,实现常态决策与非常态应急决策之间的动态协同;最后,以2012年云南丽江“6.14”突发特大山洪灾害为实例进行数值分析,验证该动态协同决策模型的合理性与可行性,能有效解决动态救灾环境下应急物资储备结构优化问题。

Dynamic Collaborative Decision Model of Emergency Material Reserves Based on Interval Two Type Trapezoid Fuzzy Sets

Emergency material reserves decision-making under major disasters is one of the effective measures to prevent the spread of a sudden disasters. A dynamic collaborative decision-making model of emergency material reserves based on interval two-type trapezoidal fuzzy sets is constructed according to the uncertainty and complexity of disaster relief information in this paper, and the emergency material reserve strategy is given on this basis. A group decision model of emergency material supplier selection under normal environment is constructed by using proportional analysis method (COPRAS) and decision-making program of interval-type fuzzy set theory to solve the problem of conflict between inconsistent decision attributes; and then, a fuzzy optimization model of emergency material reserve structure is constructed to realize the dynamic coordination between normal decision and abnormal emergency decision by considering the influence of “The Dynamic Time Factors of Disaster Relief” on reserve decision; Finally, a case study of the “6.14” sudden flood disaster in Lijiang, Yunnan in 2012 shows that the dynamic collaborative decision-making model is reasonable and feasible, and can effectively solve the structure optimization problem of emergency material reserve under dynamic disaster relief environment.