基于不确定理论的原油海运网络连通可靠性研究

原油海运网络是原油进口国的海上生命线,为科学衡量网络中节点受到突发事件影响后的原油海运网络的连通可靠性,本文采用不确定变量来描述突发事件发生后各节点的连通性,引入不确定理论对原油海运网络连通可靠性进行评估,并建立了不确定原油海运网络的最可靠路径选择模型。本文不确定变量的引入不再依赖较多的历史数据去描绘节点失效的概率分布,而且提出的最可靠路径选择模型可以确保突发事件发生后原油的及时运输。本文还提出了α-最可靠路径和最大测度最可靠路径选择问题,给出不确定原油海运网络最可靠路径风险值的不确定分布,为突发事件发生后决策者的路径选择提供依据。本文以中国进口原油海运网络为例作案例分析。

Connectivity Reliability of Maritime Transportation Network for Crude Oil Based on Uncertainty Theory

Maritime transportation network of crude oil is the maritime lifeline of the crude oil importer. In order to scientifically measure the connectivity reliability of the maritime transportation network for crude oil, when nodes in the network are affected by the extreme events, this paper applies the uncertainty variable to describe the connectivity situation for each node after the occurrence of extreme events, and introduces the uncertainty theory to evaluate the connectivity reliability of the maritime transportation network for crude oil. It also establishes the most reliable path choice model for the uncertain maritime transportation network of crude oil. The uncertainty variable introduced in this paper can reflect the uncertainty of the maritime transportation network of crude oil caused by the extreme events, which no longer needs more historical data to calibrate the probability distribution of node failure. Meanwhile, the most reliable path choice model proposed in this paper can ensure timely delivery of crude oil after the occurrence of extreme events. This paper also presents α-most reliable path and very most reliable path choice problem, and provides the uncertainty distribution of the most reliable path, which offers basis for decision-makers to choose the path after the occurrence of extreme events. In this paper, China's maritime transportation network of imported crude oil is an example for the case study.