中国人均碳排放影响因素的长期均衡与因果动态关系研究——基于结构突变ARDL-VECM模型的实证分析

为了探讨中国低碳经济的发展路径,运用BP内生结构突变点检验、考虑结构突变的ARDL模型和基于VECM模型的Granger因果关系检验方法,利用我国1985至2014年的相关数据,探讨经济增长、城镇化、技术创新、贸易开放与我国人均碳排放的长期均衡和短期动态关系,以及变量之间的因果关系。研究结果表明,中国人均碳排放与解释变量之间存在长期协整关系。长期来看,经济增长与人均碳排放之间呈倒U型关系,城市化水平的提高可以有效减少人均碳排放,技术创新与人均碳排放显著负相关,而贸易开放会引起环境恶化。短期来看,贸易开放与人均碳排放显著正相关,而其他变量对人均碳排放的影响均不显著。此外,基于VECM模型的Granger因果关系检验证实所有解释变量均为人均碳排放的Granger原因,且经济增长、贸易开放与人均碳排放之间存在双向因果关系。

Study on the Long-term Equilibrium and Causality of the Influencing Factors of China’s Per Capita Carbon-Based on Structural Break ARDL Model and VECM Model

To explore the low-carbon economic development path of China, this paper profoundly analyzes the long-term equilibrium, short-term dynamic relationship and Granger causality among economic growth, urbanization, technical innovation, foreign trade and per capita carbon emissions by collecting time series data in China over the period from 1985 to 2014, in which the BP endogenous structural breaks test, the autoregressive distributed lag modeling(ARDL)with structural break points and the Granger causality test based on vector error correction model(VECM)are employed. The empirical results show that there is a long term co-integration relationship between per capita carbon emissions and explanatory variables in China. There is an inverted-U relationship between the economic growth and carbon emissions in the long-term. The improvement of urbanization can effectively reduce per capita carbon emissions. There is a significant negative correlation between technical innovation and per capita carbon emissions. However, trade openness will cause environmental degradation. In the short-term, trade openness has a positive impact on per capita carbon emissions, and the impacts of other variables on per capita carbon emission are not significant. In addition, Granger causality test indicates that there are causal relationships between all explanatory variables and per capita carbon emissions. In the meantime, there is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth, trade openness and per capita carbon emission.