基于最优组合赋权的城市生态评价模型及应用

以联合国可持续发展委员会、世界银行等权威机构的典型、高频率的指标为基础,并根据中国统计数据不全的现状,根据可观测性原则,根据"坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展观"的科学发展观的内涵构建了适用于地级市行政区的生态评价指标体系。基于最优组合赋权建立了生态评价模型,并对辽宁省14个城市的生态进行实证分析。本文的创新与特色一是通过把人均绿色GDP、单位水资源工业废水负荷等指标纳入"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"框架来构建适用于地级市行政区的生态评价指标体系。二是通过最优组合赋权,实现了各评价对象加权得分与理想点广义距离最小,体现了距理想点越近、得分越高的原理。三是引入Jaynes最大熵原理,基于各评价结果一致性最大的思路确定最优组合权系数,避免了不合理的个别单一赋权方法对组合赋权结果贡献太小的问题。四是实证研究表明,影响辽宁省生态发展最主要的指标是人口增长率、单位水资源工业废水负荷、人均水资源量和人均绿色GDP。

The City's Ecosystem Evaluation Model Based on Optimal Combination Weights and Its Application

Based on the typical and high frequency indicators of the united nations commission on sustainable development、The world bank and other authorities,according to the present situation of lacking statistical data in China、the observability principle and scientific development concept of"insisting on the concept of people-oriented,comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development",and at last establishes the ecosystem evaluation index system which was applicable to prefecturelevel cities.This paper established ecosystem evaluation model based on optimal combination weighting and analyzed the ecological conditions for 14 typical cities in Liaoning province as empirical analysis.The innovation and features of this paper came from the four aspects: firstly,through putting green GDP per capita,unit load of industrial waste water and other indicators into the "driver-pressure-state-impacts-response" framework to build the ecosystem evaluation index system which could be applied to prefecture-level cities.Secondly,through optimal combination weight this paper achieved the goal that generalized distance between every evaluation object’s weighted score and ideal point was least,reflecting the theory that the evaluation object away from the ideal point closer,higher score the evaluation object got.Thirdly,by introducing the maximum entropy principle of Jaynes,determining the optimal combination weighting coefficient based on the idea of the largest consistency of evaluation results.Thus,this paper avoided the problem of the unreasonable single weighting method making too little contribution to the combination weighting.Fourthly,the empirical results showed that "population growth rate"、"units of water resources in industrial waste water load"、"water resource per capita" and ""green GDP per capita" were the indicators which impacted ecological development most of Liaoning province.