基于改进VIKOR方法的地震应急物资运输决策问题研究

地震灾害应急救援物资方案的合理选择对与减少人员伤亡,降低灾民的财产损失具有重要影响。本文针对属性权重未知情形下的地震应急物资运输方案决策问题,提出了一种Pythagorean模糊不确定语言与前景理论相结合的改进VIKOR决策方法,即PFUL-PT-VIKOR法。首先,采用Pythagorean模糊不确定语言用于描述和融合专家对地震应急物资运输方案在考虑多种属性影响下的感知信息;其次,利用主客观融合法对属性权重进行求解;然后,提出基于前景理论的改进VIKOR法并得出方案排序;最后,通过算例分析,对所提出方法的有效性和实践性给予验证。结果表明,PFUL-PT-VIKOR模型有助于增强决策专家对不确定突发情景信息感知的知识表示能力,解决属性赋权过于主观或过分依赖样本的困难,并突围了应急决策者隐性心理行为较难定量应用的思维定势,增强了模型的现实适用性,为地震应急物资是否合理运输提供决策支持。

Earthquake Emergency Material Transportation Decision Making Problem Based on the Improved VIKOR Method

The rational selection of emergency relief materials for earthquake disaster has a very important impact on reducing casualties and reducing the loss of property of the victims.To solve the earthquake emergency material transportation decision-making problem under unknown weights of attributes circumstance,an improved VIKOR method which combines with the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic variables(PFULVs)and prospect theory,called PFUL-PT-VIKOR method,is proposed.Firstly,the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain language is applied to describe and aggregate the expert's perception information of earthquake emergency materials transportation schemes considering the influence of multiple attributes.And then,the weights of attributes are calculated by the subjective and objective fusion method.After that,based on the prospect theory,an improved VIKOR method is introduced to ranking the emergency material transporting solutions.Finally,an illustrate example is given to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed PFUL-PT-VIKOR model is helpful to enhance the knowledge representation ability of decision-makers on the information perception of uncertain emergency situations,solve the problem that attribute weighting is too subjective or too dependent on samples,and break through the mindset that the implicit psychological behavior of emergency decision-makers is difficult to quantitatively apply,which enhance the practical applicability of model and provide decision support for the reasonable transportation scheme of earthquake emergency materials.