商业银行间风险相依结构、传染网络与溢出效应

为更加科学地揭示我国商业银行间的风险溢出效应,提出“相依结构-传染网络-风险测度”的研究思路,并使用贝叶斯网络与R藤Copula-CAViaR-CoVaR模型对我国14家商业银行在2008年至2018年区间内的风险溢出效应进行了系统分析。实证研究表明:银行风险相依结构具有国有商业银行、股份制商业银行各自聚集,城市商业银行分布于股份制商业银行周边的经济性质聚集分布特征,其中股份制商业银行起到了枢纽连接作用;国有商业银行管理、抵御及分散风险的能力大于股份制商业银行大于城市商业银行;银行间存在双向溢出效应且呈现非对称性,其中股份制银行的风险溢出大小大于城市商业银行大于国有商业银行,且银行之间存在负向溢出效应。

Risk Dependence Structure,Contagion Network and Spillover Effect among Commercial Banks

To reveal the risk spillover effect among commercial banks in China more scientifically,the research idea of‘dependent structure-contagion network-risk measurement’is proposed,and the risk spillover effect of 14 commercial banks in China from 2008 to 2018 is systematically analyzed by using the bayesian network and the R-Vine-Copula-CAViaR-CoVaR model.The empirical study shows that the risk-dependent structure of banks has the characteristics of aggregation and distribution of state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks respectively,and urban commercial banks are distributed around joint-stock commercial banks,among which joint-stock commercial banks play a pivotal role in connection.It is found that the ability of managing,resisting and spreading risks of state-owned commercial banks is greater than that of joint-stock commercial banks.There is a two-way spillover effect between banks and asymmetry,in which the size of risk spillover of joint-stock banks is larger than that of urban commercial banks than that of state-owned commercial banks,and there is a negative spillover effect between banks.