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基于D-S证据理论的群决策专家意见集结方法
引用本文:吕文红,吴祈宗,郭银景.基于D-S证据理论的群决策专家意见集结方法[J].运筹与管理,2005,14(2):10-13,25.
作者姓名:吕文红  吴祈宗  郭银景
作者单位:1. 北京理工大学,管理与经济学院,北京,100081
2. 山东科技大学,信息与电气工程学院,山东,青岛,266510
摘    要:将D-S证据理论应用于群决策,指出其优势在于应用基本可信度分配函数描述专家意见,并能区分对所描述对象不知道和否定的差异。在专家意见集结上,Dempster证据合成规则有一定的局限性,当证据发生冲突时,会得到不合理的结果。定义了证据间的分歧度,提出一种专家意见集结方法,使得专家意见发生冲突时亦可得到合理的集结结果。

关 键 词:运筹学  专家意见集结  证据理论  群决策
文章编号:1007-3221(2005)02-0010-04

The Expertise Aggregation Method in Group Decision Making Based on the D-S Evidence Theory
LU Wen-hong,WU Qi-zong,GUO Yin-jing.The Expertise Aggregation Method in Group Decision Making Based on the D-S Evidence Theory[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2005,14(2):10-13,25.
Authors:LU Wen-hong  WU Qi-zong  GUO Yin-jing
Institution:LU Wen-hong~1,WU Qi-zong~1,GUO Yin-jing~2
Abstract:We apply D-S theory to group decision making process, clarify the advantage of D-S theory in group decision and point out the difference between negation ignorance and negation. D-S evidence theory has some limitations in expertise aggregation. When the evidences are conflicting, the Dempster's rule of combination may educe an unreasonable result. We give a definition to describe the degree of bifurcation between evidences, and bring forward an expertise aggregating method. The method can educe a rational result even if the expertise from different expert has bifurcation.
Keywords:operational research  expertise  D-S evidence theory  group decision
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