随机环境下技术开发和授权的最优策略

技术创新的价值实现需要后续的商业化投资,在随机不确定的市场环境下,创新企业面对着投资或等待、自身开发或技术授权的策略选择.利用实物期权方法建立了市场不确定时的决策模型,分析开发能力、不确定性等多种因素对企业授权的影响,在多种情况下得到企业的最优决策并对相关现象给出了解释.研究发现不确定性提高了企业投资的临界值,提高了企业的技术授权价格,高度的不确定性减少了技术授权的可能,较高的能力差异会促进技术交易.

Commercialization Strategy of Patent under Uncertainty Environment

Under an uncertain environment,an innovative firm which holds the patent has a choice to commercialize it by themselves or transfer it to other firms.The decision is modeled by the real option method.Commercialization competence,transfer offer and profit uncertainty are analyzed.I find that the firm improves its investment value and technology transfer offer under the uncertainty and the high uncertainty makes it more difficult to transfer the technology,whereas poor commercialization competence of the patent firm makes the deal easier.