我国城乡收入差距与经济增长——基于非线性STR模型的实证分析

本文基于平滑转换回归(STR)模型,将城市化与金融发展考虑在内,构建了一个我国1978~2011年关联城乡收入差距与经济增长的非线性模型。研究结果表明我国城乡收入差距与经济增长之间呈现出明显的非线性特征,尤其是在考虑城市化与金融发展的影响下,非线性特征更加显著。同时在非线性条件下,城乡收入差距有利于经济增长。因此,对于追求经济更快增长的政府而言,城乡居民收入差距并非越小越好,即缩小城乡居民收入差距并不一定实现经济更快增长的目标。

Analysis of Empirical Relationship of Urban-rural Income Gap and Economic Growth Based on Non-parameter STR Model

Based on the smooth transition regression(STR)model, the paper takes urbanization and financial developments into account, and establishes a non-parameter STR model to analyze the relationship of urban-rural income gap and economic growth in the period of 1978-2011. The results show more significant nonlinear characteristic between urban-rural income gap and economic growth, especially when the paper considers the offect of urbanization and finance development. Meanwhile in the nonlinear conditions, urban-rural income gap benefits economic growth. This means, for the government, which pursues faster economic growth, urban-rural income gap is not that the smaller the better, and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents do not necessarily achieve faster economic growth.