偏好情景应变式冲突分析模型

针对决策者偏好信息随未来潜在发展情景变化的情况,构建了偏好情景应变式冲突分析模型。首先利用情景分析技术生成了影响冲突分析的若干潜在情景,不同潜在情景下的冲突子系统共同构成偏好情景应变式冲突系统。进而将所有潜在情景下冲突子系统稳定的交集定义为情景应变式冲突模型的全局稳定。由于全局稳定条件较为苛刻,交集可能为空集,进一步从集结不同情景下偏好信息角度定义了偏好集结型稳定。具体方法是依据策略优先权法对状态打分,接着利用决策者对不同情景的重视程度集结打分值,获得集结的偏好信息,并定义相应的稳定。最后以某大型客机立项论证阶段研制周期冲突决策为例比较了这两种稳定。

On Conflict Analysis Model with Uncertain Preference Sensitive to Scenarios

Considering the case that the decision makers’ preferences in a conflict analysis are sensitive to the different potential future outcomes, a conflict analysis model with uncertain preference sensitive to scenarios is proposed. Firstly, scenario analysis is employed to generate the potential scenarios that affect the conflict analysis, and then the conflict subsystems in different potential scenarios together constitute the conflict system with preferences that respond to the scenarios. Furthermore, the intersections of all stability in conflict subsystems are defined as the global stability. However, the intersection may be empty set due to the harsh global stability condition, so that a stability based on preference aggregation is further designed. The specific procedure is to score the status according to the option prioritizing method, and then to utilize the decision maker’s opinions concerning the significance of different scenarios to aggregate the scores. Consequently, the aggregation of preference information is finished, and then the corresponding stability is defined. Finally, the two kinds of stability are compared using a case study on the decision of the development cycle of a large passenger aircraft project.