自然灾害风险下区域应急储备设施选址可靠性研究

自然灾害发生时,为了保证区域应急储备系统的服务不被中断,考虑设施被破坏数目的发生概率并提供备份库存,以加强应急储备系统的可靠性。模型采用非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)进行求解,产生一组选址决策方案。以四川省八大城市的人口及运输距离为输入数据的仿真结果表明,与一般模型比较,本文考虑可靠性的选址模型能更好抵御自然灾害造成的中断影响,并且能获得更优的应急响应满意度、多重覆盖或总成本的单目标值。因此,在地震等灾害的破坏风险下,该模型可成为应急储备设施可靠选址的有效工具。

The Study on the Reliable Model for the Regional Emergency Storage Facility under the Risk of Natural Disaster

In order to protect services of regional emergency storage from being interdicted by large-scale natural disasters, we consider the probabilities of the number of facilities being interdicted and store back-up storage to enhance the reliability of location decision. The model is solved with Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm(NSGA)and a Pareto solution is obtained. The results from the instance of eight major cities in Si-Chuan province suggest that, compared to the generic model, our reliable model can deter the interdiction effect brought by natural disasters in a better way; it can also get better emergency response satisfaction value, multiple coverage value and total cost. Thus, under the chance of being interdicted by earthquake, this model should be a reliable tool to locate the emergency storage facilities.