等维递补灰色校正模型的研究及应用

灰色预测模型是中长期负荷预测的一种有效的方法,对E型规律发展的负荷有很好的拟合性,但对有转折点的S型增长趋势或增长处于饱和阶段的负荷进行预测误差较大。本文通过对历史数据的最优分段,提出了等维递补灰色校正模型,可以很好地解决这个问题。实例表明,此模型在中长期负荷预测中是适用的,尤其对于按S型曲线增长的情况,具有很高的预测精度。

Research and Application of Equivalent Dimensions Additional Grey Correct Model

Grey prediction model is an effective forecast method of long-term load,and it is a very good fit to the load of e-type growth,but for the load of s-type growth or growth in the saturation stage,the error is larger.Based on the optimum segment of historical data,the equivalent dimensions additional grey correct model is proposed,so it is a good solution to this problem.The example shows that this model is applicable in the long-term load forecast,especially for the s-curve growth,and has a high forecast accuracy.