| 宏观经济预测模型体系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭崇慧,唐焕文.宏观经济预测模型体系研究[J].运筹与管理,2001,10(4):1-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭崇慧 唐焕文 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学,管理科学与工程研究所,辽宁,大连,116024 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(10071010). |
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| 摘 要： | 针对我国宏观经济管理的实际需要,以国家和地区宏观经济中长期预测和规划为研究目的,本建立了一个以投入产出模型和人工神经网络模型为核心,结合使用最优化技术的宏观经济预测模型体系,该预测模型体系已应用于某市“十五”时期的宏观经济指标测算中,预测结果已被政府计划部门在研究制定“十五”计划时采用。
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| 关 键 词： | 宏观经济预测 投入产出分析 人工神经网络 最优化 模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-3221(2001)04-0001-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年6月18日 |
Research on Macroeconomic Forecasting Model System |
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| GUO Chong-hui,TANG Huan-wen.Research on Macroeconomic Forecasting Model System[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2001,10(4):1-8. |
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| Authors: | GUO Chong-hui TANG Huan-wen |
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| Abstract: | Directed at the demands of macroeconomic management, national and regional mediumand longterm macroeconomic forecasting and planning are considered. In this paper, a macroeconomic forecasting system in which the core is input-output models and artificial neural networks methods and optimization techniques are also integrated, is established. This proposed forecasting system has been applied to forecast macroeconomic indicator of a city in "the tenth five year"period and the results forecasted are adopted by the regional government plan agency to formulate"the tenth five year"planning. |
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| Keywords: | macroeconomic forecasting input-output analysis artificial neural networks optimization |
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