产业转移下的海上丝绸之路沿线集装箱港口的投资决策研究

在产业转移背景下,考虑港口服务货运需求与刺激货运需求的双重功效,研究海上丝绸之路沿线产业承接地的港口投资建设问题。首先,在现实交通运输网络中加入虚拟链接构建超级网络,用以刻画制造业的转移、生产和运输过程。其次,建立制造业承接地港口投资决策优化模型,用运输阻抗、地价和工资三个内生变量描述港口投资、产业转移与区域经济之间均衡关系。模型以产业承接地港口收益最大为目标,确定承接地港口的投资规模及费率水平。最后,以斯里兰卡的科伦坡口为例进行数值分析,计算海上丝绸之路沿线港口需求与供给间正向反馈的数量关系及上确界,为优化沿线港口投资实现投资利益最大化提供依据。

Study on the Investment of Container Port along the Maritime Silk Road in the Context of Industry Transfer

Port investment and port pricing along the maritime silk road(MSR)where plants may be relocated due to economic globalization are studied. First, dummy links are added to the physical transport network to form a super-network to describe the processes of industry transfer, products manufacturing and transportation. Then, a model for optimizing the port investment along the MSR is built with the variables of transport impedance, land rent and wage describing the equilibrium among port investment, industry transfer and regional economic growth. The model determines the port investment amount and the price level for the sites where the plants are relocated with the objective of maximizing the port profits. At last, taking port of Colombo as an example, we calculate the interactions between the port demand and supply and the upper bound to offer theoretical base for port investment along the MSR.