基于后悔理论的灰色应急决策方案动态调整方法

突发事件发展具有可变性、动态性、随机性等特点,这要求决策者能根据实际情况及时调整应急方案,在此过程中决策者往往表现出“有限理性”的心理特征。针对以上情形,提出一种基于后悔理论的决策方法,以解决不确定环境下考虑决策者心理因素的应急方案动态调整问题。该方法首先描述分析了基于灰数信息的应急调整方案的生成过程;然后从后悔规避的视角构造了调整方案集关于处置效果、调整成本、应对损失三方面的灰色感知效用矩阵;进一步,用转移概率矩阵预测突发事件的演化概率,计算各调整方案的灰色综合感知效用值以选出最佳调整方案;最后,通过实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明,该方法贴近决策实际、具有较强的实用性;能够为应急决策的方案调整问题提供方法指导和理论支持。

Dynamic Adjusting Method for Grey Emergency Decision Based on Regret Theory

The development of emergencies has the characteristics of variability, dynamics and randomness, which requires decision makers to adjust emergency alternatives in time according to the actual situation. In this process, decision makers often show the psychological characteristics of “limited rationality”. In view of the above situation, a decision analysis method based on regret theory is proposed to solve the problem of dynamic adjustment of emergency alternatives under uncertain environment considering the psychological factors of decision makers. Firstly, the generation of adjusting alternatives is described and analyzed on basis of grey numbers. Then, the grey perceived utility matrixes of the adjusting alternatives are constructed concerning the effect, the switching costs and the loss. Moreover, the evolution probability of emergencies in each state is predicted by transition matrix, and the grey overall perceived utility of each adjusting alternative is calculated and ranked. Finally, an example is given to show the feasibility and validity of the method. The results show that the method is close to the reality of decision-making and has strong practicability. It can provide methodological guidance and theoretical support for the adjustment of emergency alternatives.