基于两阶段混合整数规划模型的洪涝灾害应急管理研究

本文以洪涝自然灾害为现实背景, 考虑多种应急物资、灾情的不确定性和应急救灾的多目标性, 集成优化灾前准备和灾后响应两阶段, 建立了一定最大救援时间下的两阶段多目标混合整数规划模型。模型的目标一是使得不同灾害情景下灾后响应阶段总物资不足惩罚和延误损失的期望最小, 目标二是使得灾前准备阶段应急物资存储点建造成本、物资存储成本及灾后响应阶段物资分配成本之和最小。该模型保证了应急救灾的及时有效以及物资的公平分配。本文设计了一种多目标遗传算法用于模型求解, 结合具体算例, 得到了模型在最大救援时间为4到9区间内任意数值下的pareto最优解, 很好地适应了决策者不同的决策需求, 并根据pareto应急方案的数目, 灾后响应阶段成本期望和两阶段总成本等模型的三个关键产出随最大救援时间的变化趋势, 得出最优的最大救援时间为5.7。

Research on Flood Disaster Emergency Management Based on Two-stage Mixed Integer Programming Model

On the background of flood disasters, this paper considers various emergency supplies, the uncertainty of disaster events and the multiple otjectives of emergency response, combining the emergency preparation with the emergency response, and establishes a two stages bi-objective mixed integer programming model under a certain maximum rescue time. The first objective of the model is to minimize the expectation of penalty due to supply shortage and the loss owing to distribution delay in the emergency response stage under different disaster scenarios. The second objective is to minimize the total cost of the two stages. The model ensures the timely and effective response to flood disaster and the equity of supply distribution.In this paper, a multi-objective genetic algorithm is developed to solve the model and the pareto-optimal decision schemes are obtained at any maximum rescue time within the range of four to nine, which well satisfies the different needs of the decision maker. Finally, the paper suggests that the optimal maximum rescue time can be set to 5.7 from the trend in our case.