| 扩大居民消费对中国GDP的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈全润,杨翠红.扩大居民消费对中国GDP的影响分析[J].系统科学与数学,2011,31(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈全润 杨翠红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京,100190
2. 中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京,100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金委项目(60874119,70871108,70810107020); 中国科学院知识创新工程青年人才领域前沿项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 就扩大居民消费对GDP的影响机理进行了分析,并从扩大居民外生消费和居民内生消费两个方面测算了扩大居民消费对中国GDP的影响.推导出了部分消费内生化的投入产出局部闭模型下的GDP乘数,并对其进行了分解分析,找出了影响GDP乘数的关键因素.测算结果显示:扩大农林牧渔、教育、住宿和餐饮业等部门的外生消费能够对GDP起到相对较大的拉动作用.但从长远看,应建立起扩大居民消费的长效机制.需采取措施改善当前的收入分配格局,完善社会保障体系以扩大居民的内生消费.
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| 关 键 词： | 投入产出 局部闭模型 居民消费 GDP 乘数分解 |
THE IMPACT OF EXPANDING HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ON THE GDP OF CHINA |
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| CHEN Quanrun,YANG Cuihong.THE IMPACT OF EXPANDING HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ON THE GDP OF CHINA[J].Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2011,31(2). |
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| Authors: | CHEN Quanrun YANG Cuihong |
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| Institution: | CHEN Quanrun YANG Cuihong (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190 Center for Forecasting Science,Beijing 100190) |
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| Abstract: | In this study,the impact mechanism of household consumption expansion on GDP is analyzed;the impact of household consumption expansion on the GDP of China is investigated from both the aspects of expanding exogenous household consumption and expanding endogenous household consumption.A GDP multiplier is derived from the partially closed input-output model with partially endogenized consumption.Based on its decomposition analysis,the influencing factors of GDP multiplier is figured out.The result suggests th... |
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| Keywords: | Input-Output partially closed model household consumption GDP multiplier decomposition |
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