多台系统可靠性增长试验方法研究

提出了一种解决多台系统同步投试、同步停止试验和同步改进问题的新模型——指数模型．该模型充分考虑了增长过程中的各种可得信息，包括各改进阶段的失效数、未失效数和失效时间等数据．如果多台系统经过多次同步改进，并且单台系统的可靠性增长符合AMSAA模型，就可以合理地认为在每两个相邻的改进时刻之间，每台系统的失效时间服从指数分布．采用非参数方法得到多台系统在各同步停止试验时刻的可靠度，并利用最小二乘法拟合求得该模型中参数a和b的点估计值，以及参数b的置信限．通过在工程实例中对所提模型和几种已有模型计算结果的比较，说明了所提模型在解决多台系统同步可靠性增长问题中的合理性．

Research on Reliability Growth for Synchronously Developed Multi-Systems

An advanced reliability growth model, exponential model, was presented to estimate the model parameters for multi-systems, which was synchronously tested, synchronously censored, and synchronously improved. In the presented method, the data during the reliability growth process were taken into consideration sufficiently, including the failure numbers, safety numbers and failure times at each censored time. If the multi-systems were synchronously improved many times, and the reliability growth of each system fitted AMSAA model, the failure time of each system could be considered rationally as an exponential distribution between two adjoining censored times. The nonparametric method was employed to obtain the reliability at each censored time of the synchronous multi-systems. The point estimations of the model parameters, a and b, were given by the least square method. The confidence interval for the parameter b was given as well. An engineering illustration was used to compare the result of the presented method with those of the available models. The result shows that the presented exponential growth model fits AMSAA-BISE model rather well, and two models are suitable to estimate the reliability growth for the synchronously developed multi-systems.