淡水鱼养殖环节中副溶血性弧菌预测统计建模与分析

以全国6个省份淡水鱼养殖环节中副溶血性弧菌检测结果为样本,对样本进行主成分分析与列联表分析,得出影响副溶血性弧菌是否存在二分类变量的因素为地理位置、温度、盐度、PH值及其交互作用;建立二分类Logistic回归模型和经典决策树模型,预测副溶血性弧菌是否存在;将预测结论与实测结果进行比对,实证检验模型预测效果好,预报准确率高,可用于实际预测预报。

Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Vibrio Parahaemolyticus in Freshwater-Fish Cultivation

Based on the detection results of vibrio parahaemolyticus in freshwater-fish cultivation in6 provinces of China,principal component analysis and contingency table analysis were performed on the samples,and it was concluded that geographical location,temperature,salinity,PH value and their interactions were the factors influencing the existence of bicategorical variables for vibrio parahaemolyticus.Binary Logistic regression model and classical decision tree model were established to predict the existence of vibrio parahaemolyticus.By comparing the prediction results with the measured results,the model is proved to have good prediction effect and high prediction accuracy,can be used in actual prediction.