基于比较研究的浙江省历史文化名镇人口收缩特征及相关因子研究

尽管我国大力开展历史文化名镇的评选并推行相关保护利用工作已近18 a，但是历史文化名镇仍频频出现人口收缩现象。基于此，本文立足浙江省，依据多源数据，以全省所有乡镇作为比较样本，对浙江省历史文化名镇人口收缩现象进行了定量评价和比较分析，探索历史文化名镇人口收缩的特征并诠释相关因子。结果显示：（1）景区型历史文化名镇人口收缩率（16.67%）远低于全省平均水平（43.04%）；（2）人口变化动态分析显示，在收缩型乡镇中，离散收缩占比较高，收敛收缩占比较低；（3）人口收缩程度以轻微和中度为主，尚未发生极重度人口收缩现象；（4）人口收缩集聚主要集中在欠发达地市交通便利地区和发达地市交通不便利地区；（5）从相关因子看，历史文化名镇人口收缩与镇区的教育设施数和从业人员数、工业总产值、建成区面积显著相关，与常住人口基数关联性不强。研究揭示了历史文化名镇可在文化保护、产业发展、区域战略空间的部署上与一般乡镇差异化施策，从而科学应对人口大幅收缩，为活化古镇提供保障。

A comparative study on the population shrinkage features of historic towns and its correlative factors in Zhejiang province

Although China has been vigorously promoting the protection of historic towns for nearly 18 years, their population is still shrinking. This paper set Zhejiang, a province with a lot of historic towns in China, as the focus, taking the data from all the province's towns for comparison. Our research carries out quantitative evaluation and comparative studies of population shrinkage features and its correlative factors. The result shows: (1) the incidence rate of population shrinkage in historic towns with scenic areas (16.67%) is far lower than the provincial average rate (43.04%); (2) the analysis population dynamic change shows that discrete shrinkage accounts for a relatively high proportion in shrinkage towns, while convergent shrinkage accounts for a relatively low proportion; (3) the degree of population shrinkage is mainly mild and moderate, no extremely severe population contraction has occurred; (4) population shrinkage is mainly detected in the underdeveloped areas with convenient transportation and the developed areas with inconvenient transportation; (5) In view of the correlative factors, the historic town's population shrinkage is significantly correlated with the number of educational facilities, the number of employees, the industrial output value and the urban built-up area, but not directly correlated with the base of permanent population. This study suggests that population shrinkage restrain strategy of the historic towns needs to be differentiated from that of other towns in cultural protection, industrial development and regional strategic spatial deployment, to scientifically response to the population shrinkage and to provide revitalization security.