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Change point testing for the drift parameters of a periodic mean reversion process
Authors:Herold Dehling  Brice Franke  Thomas Kott  Reg Kulperger
Institution:1. Fakult?t für Mathematik, Ruhr-Universit?t Bochum, 44780, Bochum, Germany
2. Département de Mathématique, UFR Sciences et Techniques, Université de Bretagne Occidentale, 29200, Brest, France
3. Department of Statistical & Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, N6A 5B7, Canada
Abstract:In this paper we investigate the problem of detecting a change in the drift parameters of a generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process which is defined as the solution of $$\begin{aligned} dX_t=(L(t)-\alpha X_t) dt + \sigma dB_t \end{aligned}$$ and which is observed in continuous time. We derive an explicit representation of the generalized likelihood ratio test statistic assuming that the mean reversion function $L(t)$ is a finite linear combination of known basis functions. In the case of a periodic mean reversion function, we determine the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis.
Keywords:
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