| 火工品可靠性试验数据的综合分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 田玉斌,李国英,房永飞.火工品可靠性试验数据的综合分析方法[J].系统科学与数学,2006,26(2):147-158. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田玉斌 李国英 房永飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京理工大学数学系,北京,100081
2. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京,100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(10371126,10271013)资助课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 升降法试验数据和固定刺激量下的成败型试验数据,是两种最常见的火工品可靠性试验数据．我们应用Markov链,研究了升降法试验数据下,感度分布参数的极大似然估计的特性．在此基础上,应用Bootstrap方法和Bayes方法,给出了综合分析两种试验数据的方法．最后,将该方法应用于520底火的可靠性鉴定,得出了有益的结论．
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| 关 键 词： | 升降法试验 Markov链 Bootstrap方法 极大似然估计 可靠度下限 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月25日 |
The Synthetically Analytical Method For Data Sets On Pyrotechnics Reliability Test |
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| Tian Yubin,Li Guoying,Fang Yongfei.The Synthetically Analytical Method For Data Sets On Pyrotechnics Reliability Test[J].Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2006,26(2):147-158. |
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| Authors: | Tian Yubin Li Guoying Fang Yongfei |
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| Institution: | (1)Department of Mathematics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081;(2)Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 |
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| Abstract: | Two types of data sets from an up-and-down test and a success-and-failure test at a specified stimulus level are the most commonly used data sets in pyrotechnics reliability tests. Based on a data set from an up-and-down test, we use a Markov chain to study the characteristics of the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters in a response distribution. This leads to the development of a method which can analyze two types of data sets synthetically by using the Bayes method and the Bootstrap method. Finally, we apply the proposed method to appraise the reliability of a type of primer numbered as 520 and obtain the useful results. |
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| Keywords: | Up-and-down test Markov chains Bootstrap method maximum likelihood estimator lower confidence limit of reliability |
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