Detection and attribution of abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years |
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Authors: | Zhang Wen and Wan Shi-Quan |
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Institution: | Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological
Administration,
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;Yangzhou Meterorological Office, Yangzhou 225000,
China; Tongda College, Nanjing University of Post and
Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate--Environment Research for
Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Chi |
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Abstract: | Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya
(Tibetan plateau) ice core (GIC) \textit{$\delta $}$^{18}$O, and
three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and
El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals, are decomposed into two
hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies
respectively, and then the running $t$-test is used to reanalyse the
data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the
contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the
last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC \textit{$\delta
$}$^{18}$O evolved with a quasi-period of 7--9 years, and the abrupt
climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of
the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint
effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal
abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global.
The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important
triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one
hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer
(IT) is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and
sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found
that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is
relatively large. |
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Keywords: | abrupt climate change time
series analysis running $t$-Test |
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