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Worst-case optimal investment with a random number of crashes |
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| Institution: | 1. Fachbereich Mathematik, Technische Universität Kaiserslautern, Erwin-Schrödinger Straße, 67653 Kaiserslautern, Germany;2. Fachgruppe Stochastik am Mathematischen Seminar, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 4, 24098 Kiel, Germany;3. Department of Mathematics, SPST, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;4. School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin City University, Dublin 9, Ireland |
| Abstract: | We study a portfolio optimization problem in a market which is under the threat of crashes. At random times, the investor receives a warning that a crash in the risky asset might occur. We construct a strategy which renders the investor indifferent about an immediate crash of maximum size and no crash at all. We then verify that this strategy outperforms every other trading strategy using a direct comparison approach. We conclude with numerical examples and calculating the costs of hedging against crashes. |
| Keywords: | Optimal investment Market crashes Worst-case scenario Financial bubbles |
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