响应面方法计算HTR-10余热排出系统物理过程的失效概率

在核电站安全研究中，概率安全评价方法已经得到了广泛的应用.但是对于采用非能动设计的核电站系统，其可靠性分析的研究还处于初级阶段.非能动系统的失效不但要考虑常规可靠性分析中考虑的设备失效，还要考虑物理过程的失效.物理过程失效概率的计算方法和能动系统可靠性分析方法完全不同.本文给出物理过程失效的数学描述，介绍了一次二阶矩法、响应面方法，并且应用响应面方法计算了清华大学核能技术设计研究院10MW高温气冷实验堆(HTR-10)余热排出系统失效概率的近似值. 关键词： 概率安全评价 非能动系统 可靠性 响应面

Calculating physical failure probability of HTR-10's residual heat removal system by response surface method

Probability safety assessment has been widely used in nuclear plant safety research, but the reliability research of passive system is at a beginning level. The failure of passive system consists of components failure and physical process failure. Calculating the failure probability of physical process is a very difficult task due to the uncertainties of the factors which affect the physical process, and the method for the calculation is quite different from that of active system. The paper introduces response surface method to calculate the failure probability, and applies the method to get the approximate failure probability of residual heat removal system in HTR-10, the 10MW high temperature gas reactor designed by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology at Tsinghua University.