潜射鱼雷攻击水面舰船时的声自导发现概率仿真研究

鱼雷是潜艇攻击水面舰船的主要武器之一，潜艇发射声自导鱼雷攻击水面舰船的过程中，鱼雷的自导装置能否有效发现目标受多种因素的影响，有必要对其声自导装置发现目标的概率进行分析研究。阐述了潜艇使用声自导鱼雷对水面舰船的攻击过程，分析了水面舰船的辐射噪声和声反射强度对鱼雷声自导作用距离的影响，采用蒙特卡洛方法，对声自导鱼雷发现水面舰船的概率进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明，在设定的仿真条件下，随着鱼雷射击距离增大、声自导作用距离变小、目标方位误差变大，潜艇使用鱼雷攻击水面舰船时的声自导发现概率会明显变小，攻击目标舷角、舰船目标航速不同时，声自导鱼雷的发现概率也不相同。潜艇在使用声自导鱼雷对水面舰船实施攻击前，应根据攻击态势、水面舰船运动规律和水文情况，预报声自导鱼雷对水面舰船目标的发现概率。

Simulation study of Surface Warship evading acoustic homing torpedo based on Monte Carlo

The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the discovery probability of acoustic homing torpedo attack surface warship. The simulation results show that under the given simulated conditions, with the increase of the torpedo shooting distance, the homing action range becomes shorter and the target azimuth error becomes larger, the probability of acoustic homing discovery will be obviously smaller when the submarine uses torpedo to attack the surface ship. Change the attack angle and ship speed, will change the detection probability of torpedo acoustic homing.