上海基础房价相关指标及走势的分析与研究

基础房价的相关指标及其走势一直是大众关心的热门话题．本文通过对上海基础房价相关指标的分析，建立了市场房价走势的两个数学模型．模型一：在相关性分析的基础上利用主成分分析消除指标间的共线性，再用回归拟合房价模型并进行预测；模型二：在相关性分析的基础上利用核估计方法预测出房价．继呵对2005年下半年的房价走势进行了预测，得出的结果与实际情况相吻合．

Research and Analysis on Relevant Factors and Tendency of the Basic Housing Price in Shanghai

The relevant factors and tendency of the basic housing price is a hot topic that the public concerns a lot. By analysing relevant factors of the basic housing price in Shanghai, this thesis establishes two mathematical models of the housing price tendency in the market. The first model: based on the correlation analysis, main composition analysis is used to remove linearity connection among factors, thus imitate the housing price model by regression and forecast the future figure. The second model: based on the correlation analysis, the housing price is predicted by means of Kernel Density estimation. Through these two methods, we forecast the housing price tendency from July to December in 2005, and we reach a conclusion that, the result of the tendency is corresponding with the fact.