中国历史灾害研究的特点与态势管窥

基于文献计量与数据挖掘的原理和方法，以CNKI收录的历史灾害领域的博硕士学位论文为基础数据，对时间特征、位次特征、指导教师、所属机构、所属地区、关键词等指标进行综合计量分析，旨在管窥2000—2019年我国历史灾害研究的特点、态势与启示。结果表明：（1）历史灾害研究在过去20 a所受关注逐年上升，高引用论文年代区间集聚特征明显；（2）研究者从多元学科、多维视角出发，引入自然科学技术和方法，从而使研究趋于技术化、模型化，但以历史学、地理学为主要阵地的研究格局并未改变；（3）研究机构类别与空间分布特征明显，师范类院校与综合类院校是排头兵，陕西、江苏、湖北、上海等科教大省（市）处于引领地位，部分活跃学者贡献突出且优势明显；（4）关键词统计分析表明，历史灾害研究已经从注重灾害本身转向预测-评估-重建/救助-影响/启示的全过程和全方位，突出了灾害与人的关系，趋于系统化。从研究时效、结果解释力以及中国历史灾害研究的时空均衡化等方面指出了未来的工作方向。

Characteristics and trends of historical disaster research in China: Based on the quantitative analysis of the dissertations

Based on bibliometrics and data mining, this paper takes the dissertations of historical disaster research from CNKI as the basis data to analyze their time characteristics, ranking characteristics, instructors, affiliates, regions, keywords and others. It aims to clarify the characteristics, situation and enlightenment of China's historical disaster research in the past two decades. The results show that: (1) The attention paid to historical disaster research in the past two decades has increased gradually, and the high-cited papers are aggregated in some time periods. (2) Researchers are from different disciplines with multiple perspectives. The introduction of natural science techniques and methods has made the research more technical and model-oriented, but the research pattern based on history and geography remains unchanged. (3) The characteristics of involved institutions' discipline classification and geographical location are clear. Normal universities and comprehensive universities are more advanced in this field. Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Hubei, Shanghai and other provinces (municipalities) are ranked in leading position, and the contributions of a group of active scholars' are outstanding. (4) Analysis on keyword shows that the focus of research work on historical disaster has shifted from disaster itself to the whole process and all-round of forecasting-assessment-reconstruction / rescue-impact / revelation, highlighting the relationship between disasters and people, and tending to be systematic. Finally, the direction of future work is addressed, in particular,the research timeliness, interpretation of results and spatiotemporal equilibrium of China's historical disaster research.