中国交通事故损失的超越对数生产函数模型

根据中国交通事故的统计数据,借助于超越对数生产函数模型,定量探讨国内生产总值等社会因素对交通事故的直接损失的影响,首先根据中国在1979-2007年的有关交通事故的统计数据,利用相关分析找出影响直接财产损失的主要指标,分别为国内生产总值、全国总人口、民用汽车拥有量、机动车驾驶员数量,并以这些主要指标为投入,研究了该模型各种投入对交通事故的直接损失的产出弹性和替代弹性.借助于MATLAB和SPSS,建立超越对数生产函数模型.模型的理论值与真实值的平均相对误差为0.0849,预测2009年和2010年的交通事故直接财产损失分别为14.6亿元和16.9亿元.

China's Trans-log Production Function Model of Losses of Traffic Accidents

According to the statistical data of traffic accidents in China,with the help of Trans-log Production Function Model,the influences that gross domestic product(GDP) and other social factors have on the direct property loss of traffic accidents are discussed quantificationally.In the first place,we use the method of correlation analysis to find the key indicators which affect the direct property loss and they are gross domestic product(GDP), country's total population,number of civil motor vehicles,number of motorists.Then we make them as inputs and study the elasticity of productivity and substitution elasticity of the direct property loss in traffic accidents caused by the inputs of the model,according to statistical data about traffic accidents in China from 1979 to 2007.Trans-log Production Function Model was built with the help of MATLAB and SPSS.The average relative error between the theoretical values and true values of the model is 0.0849.After this,we can predict the direct property loss caused by traffic accidents in 2009 and 2010,they are 1.46 billion RMB and 1.69 billion RMB.