| 我国人口时间序列的变系数预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜爱平.我国人口时间序列的变系数预测模型[J].数理统计与管理,2008,27(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜爱平 |
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| 作者单位： | 宁夏大学数学计算机学院,宁夏,银川,750021 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据1952-2005年我国人口总量和GDP总量数据,建立变系数模型.采用逐步回归的方法来选择显著滞后变量子集,推导出系数函数的样条估计表达式,最后运用Bootstrap思想,进行点预测和区间预测。运算结果表明:对于该组数据,变系数模型能较理想地描述数据之间的内在结构,且具有较少的预测误差.
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| 关 键 词： | 变系数模型 显著性变量 样条 |
The Varying-Coefficient Model for Population Time Series of Our Country |
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| JIANG Ai-ping.The Varying-Coefficient Model for Population Time Series of Our Country[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2008,27(5). |
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| Authors: | JIANG Ai-ping |
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| Abstract: | The varying-coefficient model is constructed with the data of population and GDP in 1952- 2005.First,choosing those significant variables by stepwise regressive approach,deducing the explicit polynomial spline estimation expression of coefficient function.Finally,giving the point forecast and interval forecast by bootstrap method.The result is that the varying-coefficient model can describe those data ideally with less of error. |
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| Keywords: | varying-coefficient model significant variables spline |
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