Repeating earthquakes,episodic tremor and slip: Emerging patterns in complex earthquake cycles?

The lack of regularity in earthquake cycles continues to be a confounding issue in earthquake science. Lately, observations of episodic nonvolcanic tremor and slip (ETS) along a few well‐instrumented tectonic plate boundaries are intriguing: these features recur together with predictable time intervals. Data now trace recurring ETS back to 1990 and no significant earthquake ever followed an ETS episode. This observation and the fact that stress drops associated with episodic slips are low, only on the order of 0.01 MPa, suggests that repeated ETS has little cumulative effects in priming the fault for the next large earthquake. Another known regularity in seismic activity is the so‐called repeating earthquakes that rupture the same patch of fault repetitively. Current hypotheses for repeating earthquakes point to the interaction of continual, aseismic fault slip with locked, seismogenic patches of the fault. Interestingly, ETS also recur near where the transition between brittle faulting and plastic flow is expected, although it is not clear how and why regularities in space and time are interconnected. New data show that ETS recurs throughout the entire length of the Cascadia subduction zone, thus ruling out any special, local factors as necessary conditions for ETS. Recurrence intervals of ETS vary along the Cascadia. Such variations are not governed by the rate of plate motion that ultimately drives the earthquake process, but they do coincide with variations in the geology of the overriding plate that can influence the rheology along the plate interface. To this end, we call attention to the Portevin‐Le Chatelier effect (PLC, or jerky flow) as a potential analog to the earthquake process. The dynamics of the PLC has been extensively studied and shows many intriguing features as the system goes from chaotic to self‐organized critical regimes as strain rate increases. In particular, the PLC exhibits not only stick‐slip behavior (stress serration) over time but also spatial interactions over extended regions—features that are necessary to account for complex spatio‐temporal variations associated with earthquake activities. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 12: 33–43, 2007