Prevention and medication of HIV/AIDS: the case of Botswana |
| |
Authors: | Christian Almeder Gustav Feichtinger Warren C Sanderson Vladimir M Veliov |
| |
Institution: | (1) Institute of Business Studies, University of Vienna, Brünner Strasse 72, 1210 Vienna, Austria;(2) Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Argentinierstr. 8/105-4, 1040 Vienna, Austria;(3) Department of Economics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4384, USA;(4) Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria |
| |
Abstract: | In this paper we developed a mathematical model which allows estimating and projecting the effects of prevention and treatment
programs on the total population size, HIV-induced deaths, and life expectancies. Considering only the female population we
project the changes of the demographic developments and the situation of HIV/AIDS for Botswana up to 2060. Our mathematical
model is used to project the female population development considering their age-structure. Treatment programs are included
through selecting a price for medication (or giving it for free). Prevention programs consist of two parts: school-based programs
which try to change risky behavior and instantaneous prevention (e.g., free condoms) which has only a short-time effect on
the infection risk. The main conclusions drawn from our results are that prevention-only programs always yield the fastest
decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Adding a medication program reduces the efficiency of the prevention interventions regarding
prevalence, but it reduces the number of HIV-induced deaths and increases life expectancies.
This research was partly financed by the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF) under grant No P18161-N13. |
| |
Keywords: | HIV/AIDS Mathematical model Age distribution Botswana Prevention and treatment |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|