技术生态位视角下技术变迁过程的仿真分析:一个基于不同模式的对比研究

为解释不同技术变迁模式的作用原理,基于技术生态位理论,采用NetLogo软件进行智能体仿真实验。研究结果表明:技术外干扰的作用与强度是技术能否借助转变模式实现变迁的关键;技术变迁的去结盟与再结盟模式将导致生态位网络呈现区域高连通性,但主导技术出现空白阶段的情况;技术替代模式的技术变迁利于新技术通过生态位的积累与扩展建立市场权力,并逐步淘汰体制技术;技术变迁的重组模式是以成功的技术创新为前提,推动突破性创新涌现并彻底实现技术变革的方式。研究不仅从理论拓展和研究方法两个方面为技术生态位理论做出了贡献,而且所得结论亦从管理实践的角度,为管理者制定行之有效的技术变迁策略提供了有益借鉴。

Simulation on Technological Transition Processes Based on Technological Niches: A Comparative Study on Different Patterns

On purpose of elaborating mechanisms of different technological transition pathways, we complete the agent-based simulation using NetLogo based on the theory of technological niches. The results of the research has shown that, the existence as well as the strength of exterior interference of technology is the essence in achieving technological transition through transformation pathway; the pathway of de-alignment and re-alignment would lead the niche network to reveal sectional connectedness but dominant design to appear blank; technological substitution pathway facilitates new technology to establish market power through technological niches accumulation and extension, thus gradually knocking regime technology out of the market; reconfiguration pathway has successful technological innovation as the premise and promotes the emergence of break-through innovation, implementing technological revolution at its deepest way. This research makes contribution to technological niches theory both theoretically and methodologically. Meanwhile the conclusions would provide helpful reference for policy-making in technological transition studies based on managerial practice.