| 用燕尾突变理论来讨论交通流预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐铁桥,黄海军.用燕尾突变理论来讨论交通流预测[J].数学研究,2005,38(1):112-116. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐铁桥 黄海军 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京,100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助 (70 4 2 90 0 1) |
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| 摘 要： | 交通流本身是一个动态过程，运用尖点突变理论来分析交通流的预测时只考虑了流量和密度，而忽视了时间因素，这本身就不是很合理的．基于这个基础之上，采用燕尾突变理论来讨论交通流预测时将时间因素考虑进去，并给出一个算例表明了此方法预测的效果更符合现实。
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| 关 键 词： | 燕尾奇点 突变理论 交通流 预测模型 时间因素 微分动力体系 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月10日 |
The Discussion of Traffic Flow Forecast by Using Swallowtail Catastrophe Theory |
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| Tang Tieqiao,Huang Haijun.The Discussion of Traffic Flow Forecast by Using Swallowtail Catastrophe Theory[J].Journal of Mathematical Study,2005,38(1):112-116. |
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| Authors: | Tang Tieqiao Huang Haijun |
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| Abstract: | Traffic flow is a dynamic process in nature, therefo re , it is not very reasonable that flow and density of flow are only taken into ac count and that time is neglected if cusp catastrophe theory is used to analyze t raffic flow forecast. Based on it, the discussion of traffic flow forecast takes time into consideration by application of swallowtail catastrophe theory, and a numeric example is presented to show that its effect is more accord with realis m. |
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| Keywords: | swallowtail singularity catastrophe theory traffic flow forecast |
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