基于PHM的舰艇装备视情维修技术研究

针对PHM技术在舰艇装备视情维修中的应用需求，在分析剩余寿命预测机理的基础上，为解决舰艇装备历史数据少、状态变化普遍表现为非线性等难题，建立基于粒子滤波的多步剩余寿命预测模型，通过仿真表明：随着时间的推移剩余寿命PDF图变狭窄，剩余寿命预测误差逐渐降低，证明了预测方法的有效性。在此基础上，考虑装备维修费用最低为目标，建立以费用最低为目标的预防性维修时间确定模型，使得单位时间内的平均维修费用最低，并通过采用建立的基于粒子滤波的多步剩余寿命预测模型，最终确定了最优预防性维修时间，为装备保障人员拟订精确维修保障计划提供依据，也为舰艇装备开展视情维修奠定基础。

Research on condition based Maintenance technology ofwarship equipment based on PHM

Aiming at the application requirements of PHM technology in condition based maintenance of warship equipment,a multi-step prediction model of residual life based on particle filter is established,and the effectiveness was verified by simulation.On this basis,the minimum cost is taken as the target to study the decision of condition based maintenance,the optimal preventive maintenance time is confirmed at last,which established the foundation for the research on condition based maintenance.