| 基于具有LR型模糊输出回归模型的保费预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵雪婷,陆秋君. 基于具有LR型模糊输出回归模型的保费预测[J]. 数学理论与应用, 2013, 0(1): 69-76 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵雪婷 陆秋君 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海理工大学理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海理工大学博士启动经费项目(1000341001) |
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| 摘 要： | 在保费预测研究中,提出了一种基于模糊回归模型的预测方法.采用模糊最小二乘法,针对清晰输入和LR型模糊输出,在考虑输出量隶属函数类型存在差异问题基础之上,得到模型回归系数的迭代解.通过最小二乘估计的定性分析,给出检验模型拟合度的指标.结合保费数据的预测结果表明模型可行且具有较强的解释能力.
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| 关 键 词： | LR型模糊数 模糊线性回归 最小二乘估计 保费预测 |
Prediction of Premium by a Regression Model with LR-type Fuzzy Outputs |
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| Zhao Xueting Lu Qiujun. Prediction of Premium by a Regression Model with LR-type Fuzzy Outputs[J]. Mathematical Theory and Applications, 2013, 0(1): 69-76 |
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| Authors: | Zhao Xueting Lu Qiujun |
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| Affiliation: | Zhao Xueting Lu Qiujun(College of Science,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper a prediction technique for premium by a fuzzy regression model is built. By following the fuzzy least square method, the iterative formulae for estimating the regression coefficients of the model with certain inputs and uncertain outputs are derived. Furthermore, an index for testing the goodness of the model is introduced. The effectiveness of such model is illustrated by an empirical example with real premium data. |
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| Keywords: | LR - type Fuzzy Number Fuzzy Linear Regression Least - squares Estimation Prediction of Pre-mium |
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