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On posterior consistency in nonparametric regression problems
Authors:Taeryon Choi  Mark J. Schervish
Affiliation:aDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, MD, USA;bDepartment of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, USA
Abstract:We provide sufficient conditions to establish posterior consistency in nonparametric regression problems with Gaussian errors when suitable prior distributions are used for the unknown regression function and the noise variance. When the prior under consideration satisfies certain properties, the crucial condition for posterior consistency is to construct tests that separate from the outside of the suitable neighborhoods of the parameter. Under appropriate conditions on the regression function, we show there exist tests, of which the type I error and the type II error probabilities are exponentially small for distinguishing the true parameter from the complements of the suitable neighborhoods of the parameter. These sufficient conditions enable us to establish almost sure consistency based on the appropriate metrics with multi-dimensional covariate values fixed in advance or sampled from a probability distribution. We consider several examples of nonparametric regression problems.
Keywords:Almost sure consistency   Differentiable functions   Empirical probability measure   Hellinger metric   In probability metric   Sieve
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