| 一类潜伏期有传染性的传染病模型动力学分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张丽娟,王福昌,万永革,李振刚.一类潜伏期有传染性的传染病模型动力学分析[J].应用数学和力学,2021,42(8):866-873. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张丽娟 王福昌 万永革 李振刚 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局 防灾科技学院， 河北 三河 065201; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（41674055）中央高校基本科研业务费（ZY20215155） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 建立了一类潜伏期具备传染性的传染病传播模型，根据疾病传播规律求解了疾病消失和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数.对系统的稳定性进行了讨论，得到了系统稳定性条件.最后，以COVID-19为例，解释了各种举措在疾病控制中的作用，并对疫情传播扩散做了探讨和预测.
|
| 关 键 词： | 流行病模型 全局稳定性 基本再生数 COVID-19 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-08-26 |
Dynamic Analysis of an Epidemic Model With Infectivity in the Incubation Period |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration, Sanhe, Hebei 065201, P.R.China;2. Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Sanhe, Hebei 065201, P.R.China;3. Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100010, P.R.China |
| |
| Abstract: | A transmission model for infectious diseases with infectivity in the latent periods was established. According to the law of disease transmission, the basic regeneration number, as the threshold of disease disappearance and spread, was solved. The stability of the system was discussed and the stability condition for the system was obtained. With the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, the effects of various measures for disease control were studied. The spread of the pandemic was discussed and predicted. The work makes a reference for epidemic disease control. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用数学和力学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《应用数学和力学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
