| 基于贝叶斯网络的供应链风险模糊综合评判 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴天魁,王波,顾基发,周晓辉. 基于贝叶斯网络的供应链风险模糊综合评判[J]. 经济数学, 2014, 0(2): 69-75 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴天魁 王波 顾基发 周晓辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海理工大学管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2010CB731400) |
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| 摘 要： | 由于导致供应链失效的风险因素具有模糊性、复杂性,增加了供应链风险分析难度,一般的风险分析方法不能很好地评判供应链风险.文章提出了基于贝叶斯网络的供应链风险模糊综合评判方法,以某企业供应链风险为例,通过构建供应链失效风险的贝叶斯网络对风险事件发生概率进行线性推理,再采用模糊综合评判方法求出供应链风险中主要风险事件及总风险事件的风险等级,为该企业及早调控供应链提供依据.本评判方法可为企业供应链风险及其他类似风险的预防和控制提供参考依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯网络 供应链风险 故障树 模糊综合评判 |
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Supply Chain Risks Based on Bayesian Networks |
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| WU Tian-kui,WANG Bo,GU Ji-fa,ZHOU Xiao-hui. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Supply Chain Risks Based on Bayesian Networks[J]. Mathematics in Economics, 2014, 0(2): 69-75 |
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| Authors: | WU Tian-kui WANG Bo GU Ji-fa ZHOU Xiao-hui |
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| Affiliation: | (Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China) |
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| Abstract: | The existing common methods of analyzing risks cannot evaluate the supply chain risks for sure,because the risks leading to the failure of supply chain are fuzzy and complex.This article puts forward a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of supply chain risks based on Bayesian networks.Taking the supply chain risks of an enterprise as an example,we calculated the logarithmic probability P of risky affairs through linear deduction of Bayesian networks and then worked out the main risky affairs and their ranks by the way of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.This research provides a reference for evaluating supply chain risks and other parallel ones,which makes it convenient for enterprises to take provisions to lower risks and reduce losses. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian networks supply chain risk fault tree fuzzy comprehensive evaluation |
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