我国地方政府债务安全边界探讨及风险测度

基于改进的KMV模型,测算出2013年我国地方政府债务在不同本金偿还率和不确定性水平下的安全边界.结果表明,随着本金偿还率的增加,债务安全边界逐渐下降;当经济环境中不确定性水平上升时,债务违约风险提高.最后,本文根据2013年我国地方政府债务风险测度的实证结果,从"开源节流,提高地方政府偿债能力","阳光管理,建立债务风险预警机制","优化结构,调整债务长短期配比"等三个方面阐述了降低我国地方政府债务预期违约风险的措施.

Measurement of China＇ s Local Government Debt Safety Margin and Expected Default Rate

This paper used the improved KMV model to calculate the safety margin of the local government debt in 2013 under different principal repayment rate and fuzzy uncertainty. The results show that, with the increase of the principal repay- ment rate, the debt safety margin declines quickly. When the fuzzy uncertainty rises, the expected default risk of debt rises as well. Finally, based on the empirical results o{ the local government debt risk measurement in 2013, the suggestions were given about decreasing the local government debt expected default rate from three aspects：l） Firstly, increasing the solvency of gov- ernment by opening up the source and regulating the flow from time to time; 2） Secondly, building the debt risk early warning mechanism and realizing government in the sunshine; 3） Finally, optimizing the debt structure of local government by adjusting the ratio of long term debt and short term debt.